NHL Contender Check: The December Standings Are Starting to Tell the Truth
The Standings Are Starting to Stabilize
Twenty-five games into the NHL season, the noise is fading and the signal is emerging. The teams propped up by unsustainable shooting percentages are beginning to slide. The teams that were underperforming their expected goals models are climbing. And the gap between the genuine contenders and the pretenders is becoming visible in a way it was not in October.
The NHL is the most variance-heavy of the four major North American sports. A puck bouncing off a skate blade, a post, or a referee’s shin can change the outcome of a game. That randomness means it takes longer for the standings to reflect true talent — roughly 30 games before the signal-to-noise ratio reaches a useful threshold. We are approaching that threshold now, and the data is revealing.
The Process-Over-Results Teams
Three teams stand out as having significantly better underlying metrics than their current standings suggest. Their expected goals differentials — which measure shot quality generated versus shot quality allowed, independent of actual goaltending and shooting luck — rank in the top eight, but their actual standings positions are outside the top twelve.
The gap between expected and actual performance is almost always driven by goaltending variance and shooting percentage regression. These three teams have been on the wrong side of both variables, which means their underlying process is sound even though the results have been frustrating. History suggests they will climb into playoff contention by February as the variance corrects.
The Regression Candidates
Conversely, four teams currently in playoff positions are benefiting from unsustainable performance levels. Their team shooting percentage is above 10.5 percent — a threshold that virtually no team maintains over a full 82-game season. The league average is 9.2 percent. When these teams’ shooting regresses to their career norms, their win rates will decline, and the standings will correct accordingly.
This is the most important lesson of NHL analysis in December: the standings lie more than in any other sport at this stage of the season. The teams you should be worried about are not the ones losing games — they are the ones winning games through luck rather than process.
Goaltending Separators
The correlation between goaltending quality and playoff success is the most predictable pattern in professional sports. This season, the top five teams in five-on-five save percentage are all in playoff positions. The bottom five are all outside the playoff line. That is not coincidence — it is structural.
The teams that recognize their goaltending deficit now have three months to address it before the trade deadline. The rental goaltender market this year appears thin, which means the cost of acquiring a capable starter will be steep. Front offices that begin positioning assets now will have options in March. The ones that wait until February will pay a premium or go without.
The Dark Horse
Watch for a Metropolitan Division team that has been quietly building one of the best defensive structures in the league. Their five-on-five expected goals against rate is third-best in the NHL, but their actual goal prevention has been hampered by inconsistent goaltending. If their starter finds his form — and his career track record suggests he will — this team has the defensive foundation to make a deep playoff run.
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